if you want an excellent predictor of timing, continue to follow the inventory situation. . . Right now we are just below 2000 active listings, which is extremely low by historical standards. If you see that number start to climb back to “normal” levels of between 5000-6000 you can expect prices to slow down or even begin to drop slightly. As the number goes much above that level, you should see prices begin to decline. That is the pattern we have seen in many US cities. Once a bubble market exhausts itself, there is a rapid climb in inventory levels, followed by prices beginning to decline.
I noted that back in July, inventory was at 3,600. Now, if you check the Calgary Real Estate Board‘s home page on the top-right, you will see that inventory is now at 6,852. Here’s the Calgary Contrarian’s inventory update:
Pretty crazy stuff. I was in a wedding near Calgary a while ago and couple people told me that prices have fallen about 25% in some cases. And someone else was telling how he knows many people who used the rise in their house’s price to sell and put a down-payment on a larger house than what they had. Now they are stuck with some hefty mortgages.