There is an interesting chart here, “Asset Class Performance” (got the link from here) showing the performance of various asset classes since 2000 and giving several predictions. One comment said: “I believe all will fall, while bonds will soar. special thanks to debt deflation depression.” The poster leaves no website to track him down unfortunately.
While digging around in Google for the term “debt deflation depression,” I found found this article: “Will the Latest Oil Price Shock Lead to a U.S. and Global Recession?”
Interesting article with some interesting comments as well. The comment that Google picked up was this prediction:
I don’t understand how you can face two decades of real wages lagging productivity world wide, and still not be 100% convinced that a major depression is guaranteed in the coming years. The only way for consumers to absorb higher oil prices would be to take on more debt. As long as debt can be piled on, growth can go on, but there is no doubt that debt growth is the one and only fuel of the present growth.
Take away the US and european overindebted consumers, meaning, take away housing boom asset wealth induced spending… And the world falls into 30’s like debt deflation depression.
And if there’s one way out, I’d like to see it. Apart from aggressive monetising of public deficit, and aggressive policies in favor of higher wages (and I see none of them coming in the coming years), I can’t think of any.
So is there a question ?
Of course higher oil prices and lower house prices, will force the world into depression. Higher oil prices may indeed speed up the top of the debt-housing boom.
Talk about doom & gloom. Also no website provided for that comment either. No one really knows exactly what will happen in the next few years, but I have certainly seen a lot of doom & gloom predictions popping up lately regarding the stock market, real estate, and the US economy. I try not to let any predictions I read dictate my behaviour. I am invested for the long term and realize that market fluctuations are a fact of life. I am prepared to stay invested no matter happens and to invest consistently in my RRSPs year after year (especially when markets are down).
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